3 first-round trade ideas for the Packers ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft

General manager Brian Gutekunst has been aggressive since he took over the Green Bay Packers' front office in 2018. His track record includes trades up and down the board— even in the same round, like he did in his first draft, with two consecutive moves before selecting cornerback Jaire Alexander.

With a pick at the end of the first round, it's realistic to expect a move up if Gutekunst is running out of real first-round grades, or a trade down if he doesn't see value by getting the players available at 25.

There are multiple avenues that the Packers can follow, and the Rich Hill trade chart is a solid tool to simulate that because it is based on deals that actually have happened.

So let's use it to project three potential deals the Packers could execute during the draft.

Significant trade up

Usually, teams have something between 15 and 20 real first-round grades. If that's the case once again for the Packers, there's a chance they start to run out of options near the middle of the round — especially if they really want a top offensive tackle or cornerback prospect.

In this case, Gutekunst could call his friend John Schneider. The two executives worked together in Green Bay for a long time, and when Gutekunst moved up from 30 to 21 in 2019 to select Darnell Savage, the deal was executed with Seattle. That time, Green Bay gave up two fourth-round picks.

This year, even though it's the same nine picks from 25 to 16, the value of the 16th pick is much higher, so the Packers would have to give up more capital.

A balanced deal according to the Rich Hill chart would force the Packers to send second- and sixth-round picks, while also getting a fourth-rounder in return.

That would potentially put the Packers in position to get players like Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Troy Fautanu, JC Latham, Terrion Arnold, or Cooper DeJean.

Trade terms:

• Packers get: picks 16 (1st), 118 (4th)
• Seahawks get: picks 25 (1st), 58 (2nd), 202 (6th)

Slight trade down

I explored this idea right after the Bills traded Stefon Diggs away to the Houston Texans. In this case, the Packers would move down to 28, getting an extra fourth-rounder plus a sixth-round swap.

The value isn't great here, but it depends on who will be on the board. If Gutekunst doesn't see much value or if there are several options with similar grades at 25, it makes sense to add another mid-round pick and still keep a first-round pick.

Last year, for example, the Packers traded down from 45 to 48 and from 48 to 50, adding late-round picks, and still selected wide receiver Jayden Reed in the second round.

Trade terms:

• Packers get: picks 28 (1st), 128 (4th), 200 (6th)
• Bills get: picks 25 (1st), 219 (6th)

Eyes in the future

Trading down is philosophically more intelligent than trading up, just because of the uncertain nature of the draft. In this case, the Packers could exploit another misconception around the league, because teams usually devalue future picks.

The big secret for the Packers' recent draft success is how many picks they have had — no team in the league has had more since 2022. And next year, because of their active free agency, they will only get one compensatory pick — and it's a seventh-rounder for losing Yosh Nijman.

With a significant trade down from 25 to 45 with the New Orleans Saints, the Packers would be able to add second- and sixth-round picks in 2025, which is extremely valuable capital. They would drop down 20 spots, which is also relevant, but several analysts understand that the value after the top 20 isn't much better in the first round than it will be in the mid of the second. Moreover, the fifth-year option isn't close to being as valuable as it was before 2020, because now it's fully guaranteed when exercised after the player's third season.

Trade terms:

• Packers get: pick 45 (2nd), 2025 2nd, 2025 6th
• Saints get: pick 25 (1st)

Any trade will always depend on who's on the board, and that's why it usually happens when the team is on the clock. But the Packers have 11 picks, and that gives them both flexibility to move up and a track record of motivation to trade down and accumulate more picks.